Zambia have recently published their annual tourism report for 2024, providing long-awaited detail on visitors to the Victoria Falls World Heritage Site and indicating a record number of tourists visited the Falls over 2024.
Across the river Zimbabwe recorded 1,613,901 international arrivals in 2024, a slight increase on the 1,602,781 visitors recorded in 2023, but still significantly short of pre-pandemic highs of 2,579,974 arrivals recorded in 2019 (Zimbabwe Tourism Authority, 2025, p.8). The figures mark a sudden pause in the country’s post-Covid recovery, while global tourism levels have largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
Visitors to the Falls, however, showed a fuller recovery, with the south-bank
The figures reported indicate a new record combined total of 565,083 visitors to the Falls over the year, surpassing the previous record total of 537.980 recorded in 2019. The figures also mark only the second time that the Falls have received over half-a-million visitors in two consecutive years, with a total of 537,980 visitors recorded in 2018 and 530,136 in 2023.
The scale of recent growth in tourism to the Falls is clearly illustrated by the numbers of visitors estimated to have visited the south bank Rainforest since the early 1900s. While there are no detailed records of visitor numbers to the Falls since Livingstone first described them to the world, estimates based on known occupancy levels at the Victoria Falls Hotel over the decades indicate that perhaps one million people had visited the south bank Rainforest by the time of independence in 1980. It is calculated that this number doubled to two million over just twenty years to 2000 and this total itself nearly tripled to close to six million visitors over the twenty years to 2020 (Roberts, 2025).
Carrying Capacity Concerns
The new record total raises concerns over the peak-season carrying capacity of the Falls visitor parks, especially on the south bank.
The 1996
“The rainforest walk is the primary attraction which brings tourists from all over the world. The carrying capacity of the Rainforest walks limits the carrying capacity of the whole area... The carrying capacity of the rainforest is based upon the number of people in the rainforest at any one time. Calculations by the study team showed that on both the Zambian and Zimbabwean side, the carrying capacity was about 250 persons at any one time giving 1,250 persons on an average day and up to 3,000 persons per day on a capacity day.” (IUCN, 1996a, p.9-10)
The 2010 State of
The 2016 Joint Plan indicated a revised carrying capacity of 500 visitors to the south bank and 250 visitors to the north bank at any one time (as opposed to Heath’s 1990 estimate of 250 visitors for each side of the river). The revised south bank figure is believed to be based on the assumption of an average visit time of one-hour, instead of the widely accepted tourism industry figure of two hours, effectively doubling the south-bank daily capacity identified in 1996 from 3,000 to 6,000 (it should be noted there have been no corresponding improvements to visitor facilities or infrastructure to justify this increased figure).
The 2024 Zambezi/Victoria Falls National Park Management Plan estimated the current tourist accommodation capacity of the south bank at between 5,000 and 6,000 beds (ZPWMA, 2023, p.59), with hotel and other developments already announced and in progress expected to easily bring this total to over 6,000 (while the centrally located Kingdom Hotel, with nearly 300 rooms, still lies empty).
Accepting a daily limit of 3,000 visitors either side of the Falls and an average stay of two days/nights, the drive to expand tourism accommodation on the south-bank resort beyond 6,000 beds would suggest that the carrying capacity of the ‘Rainforest’ is in danger of being regularly breached during peak-season periods, when hotels and lodges are often booked to near capacity. The concerns over the visitor capacity of the Falls also extend to tourism activities, with recent years seeing a significant increase in the number of cruise boats operating on the river above the Falls and helicopters offering flights over the Falls.
In 2018 ZimParks extended the daily opening times for the south-bank visitor 'Rainforest' from its traditional dusk closing time (6-7 p.m.) until 10 p.m. while also allowing night-time game drives within the Zambezi National Park and late night dining and events along the river.
Tourism development pressures have also led to the development of inappropriate and illegitimate infrastructure within protected 'no new development' zones, such as the establishment of the riverside Baines Restaurant, opened in mid-2023 and located immediately above the Falls within the Victoria Falls National Park and UNESCO World Heritage Site 'red zone.' The proposed development of a riverside 'tree lodge' complex along an undeveloped stretch of the riverine fringe surrounding the Elephant Hills Golf Course, again within the VFNP and WHS red zone, threatens to further impact the fragile ecology of the immediate area of the Falls (KVFW, 2023; 2024). These developments also risk increasing people-wildlife conflict by displacing local elephant herds from their traditional movement corridors, refuge and feeding areas and bringing them into conflict with local residents (VFCC, 2024, p.64, 91, 155).
Over-tourism risks the degradation of the Falls environment through direct physical development and disturbance, with increased noise and light/visual pollution experienced by the visitor and ultimately reducing the wilderness, and tourism, value and appeal of the Falls. The drive for short-term growth and gains are undermining the long-term tourism value and potential of the destination - as well as risking the lives of residents.
References
Further information, downloads and links to key documents available from Keep Victoria Falls Wild website (www.keepvictoriafallswild.com).
Keep
Victoria Falls Wild (2023) 2023 State of
Keep
Victoria Falls Wild (2024) 2024 State of
IUCN
(1996) Strategic Environmental Assessment of Developments Around
Roberts,
P. (2025) Footsteps Through Time - A History of Travel and Tourism to the
UNESCO (2010) Conservation Issues.
Victoria
Falls City Council (2024)
Zambia Tourism Agency (2025) Annual Report 2024.
No comments:
Post a Comment