KEEP VICTORIA FALLS WILD
Zambia have recently published their annual tourism
report for 2024, providing long-awaited detail on visitors to the Victoria
Falls World Heritage Site and indicating a record number of tourists visited
the Falls over 2024.
Zambia
recorded a record 2,199,820 international arrivals over 2024, a 35 percent
increase on the 1,392,153 arrivals recorded in 2023. Visitors to the north-bank
Falls visitor park, however, declined to 170,402, against 227,000 in 2023,
including 45,023 international visitors, down from 51,126 recorded in 2023. The
Mosi-oa-Tunya National Park recorded 11,591 visitors
(Zambia Tourism Agency, 2025). The figures show a strong national recovery from
the pandemic years and reflect the strength and diversity of Zambia's
nationwide tourism industry.
Across the river Zimbabwe recorded 1,613,901 international
arrivals in 2024, a slight increase on the 1,602,781 visitors recorded in 2023,
but still significantly short of pre-pandemic highs of 2,579,974 arrivals recorded
in 2019 (Zimbabwe Tourism Authority, 2025, p.8). The figures mark a sudden
pause in the country’s post-Covid recovery, while global tourism levels have
largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
Visitors to the south-bank Rainforest viewing
the lunar rainbow (ZPWMA, 2023)
Visitors to the Falls, however, showed a fuller recovery, with the south-bank Victoria Falls visitor park receiving 394,681 visitors over 2024, including 295,084 international visitors (Zimbabwe Tourism Authority, 2025, p.24). The total for 2024 is just short of the record high of 397,436 visitors to the Falls recorded in 2019 (and which included 310,732 international visitors), indicating that tourism to the Falls has recovered to pre-Covid levels, despite the poor national figures (and a reflection of the over-reliance of Zimbabwe's national tourism industry on the Falls). The Zambezi National Park recorded 202,618 visitors, up on the 170,605 visitors recorded in 2023.
The figures reported indicate a new record combined total of 565,083 visitors to the Falls over the year, surpassing the previous record total of 537.980 recorded in 2019. The figures also mark only the second time that the Falls have received over half-a-million visitors in two consecutive years, with a total of 537,980 visitors recorded in 2018 and 530,136 in 2023.
The scale of recent growth in tourism to the Falls is
clearly illustrated by the numbers of visitors estimated to have visited the
south bank Rainforest since the early 1900s. While there are no detailed
records of visitor numbers to the Falls since Livingstone first described them
to the world, estimates based on known occupancy levels at the Victoria Falls
Hotel over the decades indicate that perhaps one million people had visited the
south bank Rainforest by the time of independence in 1980. It is calculated
that this number doubled to two million over just twenty years to 2000 and this
total itself nearly tripled to close to six million visitors over the twenty
years to 2020 (Roberts, 2025).
Carrying Capacity Concerns
The new record total raises concerns over the
peak-season carrying capacity of the Falls visitor parks, especially on the
south bank.
The 1996 IUCN
SEA report calculated the
carrying capacity on both sides of the Falls to be 250 people at any one time
with a daily limit of 3,000 visitors.
“The rainforest
walk is the primary attraction which brings tourists from all over the world. The
carrying capacity of the Rainforest walks limits the carrying capacity of the
whole area... The carrying capacity of the rainforest is based upon the
number of people in the rainforest at any one time. Calculations by the study
team showed that on both the Zambian and Zimbabwean side, the carrying capacity
was about 250 persons at any one time giving 1,250 persons on an average day
and up to 3,000 persons per day on a capacity day.” (IUCN, 1996a, p.9-10)
The 2010 State of Conservation
Report confirmed the carrying capacity for the Falls
visitor parks, estimating a total of 6,000 daily visitors as a maximum, split
equally over the two sides of the river (UNESCO, 2010).
The 2016 Joint Plan indicated a revised carrying
capacity of 500 visitors to the south bank and 250 visitors to the north bank
at any one time (as opposed to Heath’s 1990 estimate of 250 visitors for each
side of the river). The revised south bank figure is believed to be based on
the assumption of an average visit time of one-hour, instead of the widely
accepted tourism industry figure of two hours, effectively doubling the south-bank
daily capacity identified in 1996 from 3,000 to 6,000 (it should be noted there
have been no corresponding improvements to visitor facilities or infrastructure
to justify this increased figure).
The 2024 Zambezi/Victoria Falls National Park Management
Plan estimated the current tourist accommodation capacity of the south bank at
between 5,000 and 6,000 beds (ZPWMA, 2023, p.59), with hotel and other
developments already announced and in progress expected to easily bring this
total to over 6,000 (while the centrally located Kingdom Hotel, with nearly 300
rooms, still lies empty).
Accepting a daily limit of 3,000 visitors either side of
the Falls and an average stay of two days/nights, the drive to expand tourism
accommodation on the south-bank resort beyond 6,000 beds would suggest that the
carrying capacity of the ‘Rainforest’ is in danger of being regularly breached
during peak-season periods, when hotels and lodges are often booked to near
capacity. The concerns over the visitor capacity of the Falls also extend to
tourism activities, with recent years seeing a significant increase in the
number of cruise boats operating on the river above the Falls and helicopters offering
flights over the Falls.
In 2018 ZimParks extended the daily opening times for
the south-bank visitor 'Rainforest' from its traditional dusk closing time (6-7
p.m.) until 10 p.m. while also allowing night-time game drives within the
Zambezi National Park and late night dining and events along the river.
Tourism development pressures have also led to the
development of inappropriate and illegitimate infrastructure within protected
'no new development' zones, such as the establishment of the riverside Baines Restaurant, opened in mid-2023 and located immediately above the Falls within
the Victoria Falls National Park and UNESCO World Heritage Site 'red zone.' The
proposed development of a riverside 'tree lodge' complex along an undeveloped
stretch of the riverine fringe surrounding the Elephant Hills Golf Course,
again within the VFNP and WHS red zone, threatens to further impact the fragile
ecology of the immediate area of the Falls (KVFW, 2023; 2024). These
developments also risk increasing people-wildlife conflict by displacing local
elephant herds from their traditional movement corridors, refuge and feeding
areas and bringing them into conflict with local residents (VFCC, 2024, p.64,
91, 155).
Over-tourism risks the degradation of the Falls environment
through direct physical development and disturbance, with increased noise and
light/visual pollution experienced by the visitor and ultimately reducing the wilderness,
and tourism, value and appeal of the Falls. The drive for short-term growth and
gains are undermining the long-term tourism value and potential of the
destination - as well as risking the lives of residents through the increased risks of people-wildlife conflict.
References
Further
information, downloads and links to key documents available from Keep Victoria
Falls Wild website (www.keepvictoriafallswild.com).
Keep
Victoria Falls Wild (2023) 2023 State of Development
Final Report. August 2023.
Keep
Victoria Falls Wild (2024) 2024 State of Development Final Report. July, 2024.
IUCN
(1996) Strategic Environmental Assessment of Developments Around Victoria Falls,
Executive Summary. IUCN Regional Office for Southern
Africa.
Roberts,
P. (2025) Footsteps Through Time - A History of Travel and Tourism to the Victoria Falls. Fourth Edition. Zambezi Book Company /
CreateSpace Independent Publishing. (First published 2017).
UNESCO
(2010) Conservation Issues.
Victoria
Falls City Council (2024) Victoria
Falls City
Master Plan. Draft Report of Study. April 2024.
Zambia
Tourism Agency (2025) Annual Report 2024.
Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management
Authority (October 2023) Zambezi/Victoria Falls National Park GeneralManagement Plan (2024-2034). October 2023 (approved April 2024).
Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (2025)
Tourism Trends and Statistics 2024.